In 2017 he United States took the first steps in a more protectionist economic policy by establishing the first tariffs on Chinese, European and Mexican products. And is that as you can see in the following chart prepared by PICTEC US imports to China are almost 6 times more and the figure has doubled in 10 years, since it was then three times.
In March of 2018 it would become official being at the beginning tariffs of 50,000 million dollars to a list of Chinese products. In response, China would introduce arbitrary tariffs on more than 100 American products, especially soybeans, a product that the United States exports massively to China and from there would be imported from other countries. Trump also had harsh accusations against China for having appropriated American technology and used it to make the United States unfair competition.
The United States would respond in April with the promised tariffs by expanding the initial list and China would impose an additional tax of 25% on soybean, to which Trump responded by doubling the tariff figure, which now stands at 100,000 million.
So things in June Trump would return to the charge this time with the products used by American technology companies and finally apply it with a tariff of 10% of 200,000 million in almost 300 products, and became effective at the end of August. China says it will apply tariffs of an equivalent amount in response.
In the following chart we can see how the war has also been transferred to the currencies in which the day that in the month of April when the dollar occurred would begin to revalue. This graph will be analyzed in the coming days with the in-depth analysis of the currency exchange.
Thus the things at the end of June would take place the summit of the G20 in the Japanese city of Osaka, where the commercial agreement and the end of the hostilities on the part of the United States would be gestated. On Monday, July 1, the stock markets would rebound strongly and even gold would fall, a sign of stability in the world economy. As if that were not enough Trump visited the demilitarized zone in Korea to take the picture with Kim Jon I, the dictator of North Korea. This, together with the rejection of an attack on Iran, would make clear the doubts that the American indices are preparing the jump to new historical records.
So we have the following evolution in the main indices of which the Dow Jones and the SP500 will comment.
It started from a previous analysis that indicated a rebound and hchi formation after the fall of before the end of the year. It has been fulfilled although I expected a minor correction and then a rise to where today. But if we mark a fibo there it would reach 61.5% of the value that is what the index is doing when it bounces.
Taking into account that premise and the behavior that leads now I dare to predict a rise to 30,000 points before next summer. You just need to climb 27,000 points with ease and that is about to do so. Next the long-term chart.
The SP500 in turn has already reached record highs this week, going ahead of DOW JONES. And it approaches the unknown in front of 3,000 points.
In this case I think that next month may continue to rise very slowly or in August at the end there is some circumstance that makes it go down to channel support. I have said before that before touching the 30,000 points the DOW should visit the 26,500. Well in the case of the SP500 it would be quite likely that it would touch the 3,000 points again that until recently were resistance and will now act as support.
© 2016 - All Rights Reserved - Diseñada por Sergio López Martínez