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Recent context

In 2017 he United States took the first steps in a more protectionist economic policy by establishing the first tariffs on Chinese, European and Mexican products. And is that as you can see in the following chart prepared by PICTEC US imports to China are almost 6 times more and the figure has doubled in 10 years, since it was then three times.

eco_usa_china_imports_exports_2018_PICTEC

Commercial War

eco_acuerdo_chinausa In March of 2018 it would become official being at the beginning tariffs of 50,000 million dollars to a list of Chinese products. In response, China would introduce arbitrary tariffs on more than 100 American products, especially soybeans, a product that the United States exports massively to China and from there would be imported from other countries. Trump also had harsh accusations against China for having appropriated American technology and used it to make the United States unfair competition.

The United States would respond in April with the promised tariffs by expanding the initial list and China would impose an additional tax of 25% on soybean, to which Trump responded by doubling the tariff figure, which now stands at 100,000 million.

So things in June Trump would return to the charge this time with the products used by American technology companies and finally apply it with a tariff of 10% of 200,000 million in almost 300 products, and became effective at the end of August. China says it will apply tariffs of an equivalent amount in response.

In the following chart we can see how the war has also been transferred to the currencies in which the day that in the month of April when the dollar occurred would begin to revalue. This graph will be analyzed in the coming days with the in-depth analysis of the currency exchange.
eco_EUR_USD_1S
eco_visita_korea_trump_kim
Thus the things at the end of June would take place the summit of the G20 in the Japanese city of Osaka, where the commercial agreement and the end of the hostilities on the part of the United States would be gestated. On Monday, July 1, the stock markets would rebound strongly and even gold would fall, a sign of stability in the world economy. As if that were not enough Trump visited the demilitarized zone in Korea to take the picture with Kim Jon I, the dictator of North Korea. This, together with the rejection of an attack on Iran, would make clear the doubts that the American indices are preparing the jump to new historical records.



World indexes

USA

So we have the following evolution in the main indices of which the Dow Jones and the SP500 will comment. It started from a previous analysis that indicated a rebound and hchi formation after the fall of before the end of the year. It has been fulfilled although I expected a minor correction and then a rise to where today. But if we mark a fibo there it would reach 61.5% of the value that is what the index is doing when it bounces.
eco_DOW30_back_1D
Taking into account that premise and the behavior that leads now I dare to predict a rise to 30,000 points before next summer. You just need to climb 27,000 points with ease and that is about to do so. Next the long-term chart.
eco_DOW30_1Y
The SP500 in turn has already reached record highs this week, going ahead of DOW JONES. And it approaches the unknown in front of 3,000 points.
eco_SP500_1Y
In this case I think that next month may continue to rise very slowly or in August at the end there is some circumstance that makes it go down to channel support. I have said before that before touching the 30,000 points the DOW should visit the 26,500. Well in the case of the SP500 it would be quite likely that it would touch the 3,000 points again that until recently were resistance and will now act as support.
eco_SP500_1D


EUROPA - ALEMANIA

The American indices are pulling the European indexes and I am perfectly good graph of the German index, the DAX30, to corroborate it. And it is close to beating historical resistances 13,700 and also perform a hchi as well as the DOW as the SP500. Next I will study the DAX30 which is a perfect example of Europe as it is perfectly correlated with the EUROSTOXX50 (the 50 largest values in Europe). In addition to the above-mentioned news that affect the whole globe, it is also good to highlight the agreement of Europe with Mercosur in which free trade between Europe and the 4 South American countries that make up Mercosur is improved.

The DAX30 only grows from its origins. In 2008, prior to the financial crisis, it would match its peak in 2000 coinciding with the dot-com bubble.
The German index is the only one that counts the dividend in its graphs so the index rise looks much larger than the IBEX or other indexes.
In 2015 it would reach maximums after the rally since 2012. This would coincide with the EUROSTOX highs of 3,700 points.
In 2018 the old highs of 12,000 points of the DAX30 have been surpassed and everything points that after the fall experienced after several months of bad results in Germany, it will return to the good path and recover the previous highs of 13,600 points

If we look at the graph we see how each time the means of 20 and 100 (violet ellipse) periods have crossed, the index has changed direction. In this case in the long term these periods are weeks. (then the one of 100 is an EMA of almost 2 years). Violet black line.
Attending the extension of Fibonnaci I can predict that after reaching maximum (78% fibro) will return to 61.8% to take oxygen to paste the last arreón and reach 100% that will be higher than 15,000 points. From there it would be at the expense of other indices or events such as the US elections of 2020. Those elections may be a before or after and there will be some nervousness at the levels of the indexes since there has not been a financial crisis since 2008 if we count the 2012 as a correction.
eco_DAX30_1Y