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History, recent context and fundamental

URBAS is a Spanish real estate company that is responsible for the construction, promotion and sale of flats and management of real estate assets. It is one of the leading companies in the Henares corridor and with a strong national and international expansion plan. This real estate company that today capitalizes about 30 million euros and finds itself with a negative equity in its day was one of the most profitable of the Madrid park due to the effervescence of the real estate bubble. Just before the big rise, the company was controlled by another company based in Guadalajara, Guadahermosa, where the managers had almost 30% of the shares. Later, Guadahermosa would be integrated into Urbas (in 2006) , the direction of which is a great weight of Guadahermosa.                     

From 2011 the company would be filled with debts and flats without being able to sell, with what would begin the ordeal of all the companies in the sector. However, some more than others since, for example, Hercesa in Guadalajara would have sold almost all the houses and would have enough cash to keep everything that was not sold that is currently being built. That would paralyze the works in execution and without owners and would focus on other markets such as Romania or Hungary that had just entered the European Union and had a very high potential.                     

Urbas would not have done his homework well and went out into the open for a long time, having to sell many newly purchased assets at prices for a quarter of the cost to be able to clean up his accounts and even then year after year the debt would increase. Until 2014 when the activity of selling flats would begin to give signs of life. It is at that moment that the indicators of sales of apartments and employment began to turn when Urbas would begin to refloat projects and embark on some new ones. During almost all 2016 it would be one of the most controversial values ​​of the park due to its nominal value. This would range between € 0.01 and € 0.013 for a long time being very close to technical bankruptcy since the CNMV suspended any value that was below the minimum. In fact at the end of 2018 it would be suspended and it would be put on the market after the controversial measure of the increase of decimals in the values.

These two years have greatly improved the situation in Madrid, with the employment rate being very high and where the flats and homes have been the most revalued in Spain. Furthermore, the disinvestments produced in Catalonia due to political instability and the neglect of institutions have positively influenced Madrid with a record company settlement and a very high turnover. This is very positive for real estate groups in the capital that already had projects in execution. Therefore the prospects of the company are good but there is still a very high debt for an income that 2 or 3 years ago were almost nil. Time will have to be allowed to see the results of 2020 and see if the promise of reducing debt by 60% in three years is fulfilled .                 

Fundamental Analysis Urbas




###2015201620172018
Debt/ Cash company
Total debt (M)169123,4126,4195
Profit/ Share value
Capitalization(M)28,534,23712,5
EBDITA (M)--0,20,57,1
Net Profit (M)-4,85,30,4

If we look at the fundamentals table, we observe how the results have been improving year after year since 2015 when the situation was unsustainable. In 2017 it was suspended for three months due to the lack of explanations by the company about its financial situation and its long-term project. That year, however, would be the year that would turn all the results into a better one, largely due to the fact that it was already the first year with sustained growth in the price of housing.                     

Last year, in 2018, the EBDITA would begin to have a normal value for the size of the company entering positive strongly. However, this increase did not affect the company's accounts, since the company had to pay interest on its financial debt. This debt is not very large if the EBDITA starts to rise and is placed at an acceptable value around 20-30 million. That would make the debt were like 7-10 years of activity of the company, similar to other companies in the continuous market and that if it continued to grow steadily it would go down .                     





Technical analysis

If we look at the graph that is made in daily candles and runs just since the measure of BME was applied to add a decimal to the quotes. Since any attempt to make an average with respect to the period that was 1 cent would be bad because it did not reflect the real value that gave the market. Although the measure of the BME was no more than a speculative measure and still is not well known to those who benefit since the fall that occurred in many values ​​was excessive and the facts give the reason.

The CNMV should answer them and not me.

Returning to the technician ..., the quote is about to make an HCH inverted once it exceeds the cent. It remains to be seen if it will be able to exceed € 0.027. That is the central resistance that has not come to overcome in the last five years. First of all to overcome this by far the penny and then the medium-term bearish line that originated from the highs of 2014. It would be very likely that he did not surpass it in the first attempt and went to look for the penny again.

The key is also in if the other values ​​of the continuum surpass the centime that will undoubtedly help Urbas to do the same. These values ​​are those found in this week's analysis thread: Abengoa B, Vertice 360 ​​. Urbas has never been below the penny ever and Duro Felguera would rise first after the measure.                     
From here if one is invested in Urbas which is a value with which we must be very careful, would continue to invest until it reaches 1.5 cents and then cut the weight in half trying to buy if it possibly corrected in summer little by little. Then he would leave the value until it reached € 0.02. From there I would place a Stop Lost and try to sell as it was getting closer to the pure resistance of the value, € 0.027.



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