”ESP_LANGUAGUE” ”ENG_LANGUAGUE”


Current context

As of today, July 2019, we are living a somewhat strange situation. On the one hand the economy of the euro zone somewhat decelerated with a few rates to the minimum and with the ECB supporter to continue before committing errors raising them or even lower rates more.
On the other hand in the United States with excellent data, historical record of job creation and with some types that have been rising progressively but that the president and people close to the power are reluctant to keep raising them. This is due to the low competitiveness of a strong dollar but the dollar must adjust to its market not to the rest of the world.
While the federal reserve is independent of government decisions, it sometimes has some influence on the currency's trend. That is why as soon as the economy shows worse data than expected, it is an excuse to try to stop the rate increases. These stratagems are more typical of Third World countries or countries like China that bases its strategy on devaluing its currency in order to offer cheaper services and at the same time sacrifice the effort of its citizens to achieve open market share. They have been doing it for a long time, which is why Trump has already affirmed several times that this war has long since been lost.

So things cross currency is raised with considerable uncertainty before the next meeting of the Fed at the end of July and before the new meeting in September of the ECB that after the change of government in the European Union could happen anything. And it is that Germany has started to show good employment and production data after more than 6 months down.

Technical Analysis

If we look at the long-term chart we can see that we are still in the bearish channel in favor of the Dollar that began to draw at the beginning of 2018 after the break of supports around 1.18 €. All this came after the continuous statements by Draghi to deny the next rate hike.

From there after the good data from the United States the dollar has been climbing positions to touch € 1.11. Recently the euro has risen again and everything indicates that it will reach 1.15 at least before September and then fail again in favor of the dollar.
And it is that the results of this Friday surprised the whole market so the dollar revalued strongly but I think it will try to push down until September as shown in the chart and depending on how the rate rise on both sides the Crossing will go one way or the other.

eco_EUR_USD_1S