”ESP_LANGUAGUE” ”ENG_LANGUAGUE”


Actual context

After the agreement with creditors and bondholders signed this year only one thing remains for Abengoa: get rid of short-term debt. For this the big step that must be done is to sell the projects or works carried out. Several projects have already been carried out in small projects, such as the sale of the contract to carry out a desalination plant in Ghana last year and, for example, water management in several municipalities in southern Spain this year.
In addition, it would be very close to the total agreement with the creditors to complete the outstanding debt from which part was paid last year and which would still be close to 200 million to be paid.
To do all this, you need more important disinvestments and for that, the sale of A3T, which was inaugurated three months ago .

It is estimated to be sold for some 600 million of which a large part will be returned to the Santander bank for the last loan it made. The rest will pay the short-term debt (which remains of the 1200 million contributed in 2017), old creditors and what remains of Mexico.
This should be enough to reduce interest and danger, and already with projects that have a portfolio of close to 2,000 million should be enough to improve the accounts this year.

Debt in Abengoa




###20192018Observations
Corporate Financial Debt
New Money 1368668Part of 1266 M of Feb 2017 (5% 2 years)
New Money 2262267Part of 1266 M of Feb 2017 (5% 2 years)
Old Money27141556Money back to agreement before 2017, limit 2022-2023 and low interest rate
Loan Las Palmas7777Short term, reserved
Mexican debt217213Short term
Overdue confirming1516Recent debt to pay soon
Guarantees8578Short term
Derivatives2122Short term
Other corporate debt64956975% Short term - 25% long term
Total deuda financiera44073558
Proyect Finance320111Long term
Debt companies held for sale9291129Short term
Total Financial Debt56564698

Así pues las cosas estaríamos a la espera de ese evento que se producirá entre Septiembre y Octubre. Ya existen varios interesados en la compra, ahora faltarían muchos detalles que llevarán bastante tiempo resolver. Además se estaría a la espera de los resultados del segundo cuatrimestre que saldrán previsiblemente a finales de Agosto.

Technical Analysis

If several months ago we had hoped to cross the continuation of the bullish path as we see in the graph, nothing has changed. We continue in the same channel but this time in the lower part. If you look at the chart drawn in mid-May my first impression was that we would go up little by little but knowing when the news is going to jump and knowing how Abengoa is, mark a much more optimistic channel in which, if it were produced right now, we would find ourselves at 0.0119 and not where we are.                     

It has thrown another much softer slope in which in September if we continue in the lower part we can be in the 0.0129 and not in the 0.015 so the hopes of finishing the year above two cents are scarce, although I still think that sometime between October and November will be reached.
I also think that in 2020 you can still buy below € 0.02.

eco_abengoaB_2_1D


Right now in the short term we are tracing a triangulation with little volume that ends today Friday. This triangulation has two options: A rise of rank or the continuation of the parallel channel without volume that we take before the indecision of the market.
In the event that it should rise, it should go directly to 0.0119 in a few days to reach the first resistance of the road 0.0129. Analyzing the volumes of recent days and how much it costs to raise it above 0.0108 (place where there are many positions) that was recently 65 million shares is to be assumed that with little more than 300 million exchanges will come to this level.
To get to 129 with 500 million would be enough. But surpassing it is another story. That level coincides with 26% fibonacci and has been support and resistance as a value at other times. Arrived at that level and without news I would bet by a downward triangulation until a week before results (end of August).
Abengoa will try to delay as much as possible the sale of the A3T asserting its position that it is not in a hurry so that it can raise the price. On the other hand, the big shareholders do not care that their shares are worth much except before selling them, since custody costs will decrease . So if the news comes out in September we will have to wait until the end of August for a substantial increase. After the agreement of the sale of A3T I am very sure that they will exceed € 0.018 per share .

eco_abengoaB_3_1D