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History, recent context and fundamental

Amadeus is a technology solutions company for the tourism and travel sector. It was born in 1987 as a link between several European airlines to develop a platform of information and reservation services between companies and customers. For this, the IBM company was contracted to implement the project, which amounts to 100 million dollars. The company was distributed throughout the signatory countries of the alliance, finding the headquarters of the company is in Madrid and two other important centers in France and Germany. The airlines are Iberia (Spain), Lufthansa (Germany) and Air France (France) as well as Scandinavian Airlines .

Since its foundation, has not stopped growing, reaching 40% of the world reserves market in 2015. It operates in almost all countries and continues in high growth since many airlines that are external to the founders pay Amadeus to use their services. Your competitors are Saber and Travelport .
Below I present the data of fundamentals that I find most important:

Fundamental Analysis Amadeus




###20142015201620172018
Debt / Cash company
Total Debt (M)5.4204.3234.9384.9855.770
Beneficio/valor acción
Capitalization(M)-17.85318.94326.37726.697-
EBDITA (M)1.3131.4751.7111.8792.028
PER23,326,624,927,930,4
Net Profit (M)631,5683,9825,51.0021.002
Dividend0,70,770,941,131,17
Profitability per Share (%)1210.721,220,73,5
Debt/EBDITA1,31,11,141,211,51

From the table of fundamentals the increase in debt since 2014 is doubled in accordance with the capitalization of the company that has been doubled and the net profit and EBDITA. In short, the company is twice as big as 4 years ago but the price of the company has risen, since the PER has increased by almost 20% . The debt in relation to the EBDITA has risen slightly since 2014, which was at 1.3 to 1.5. However, this parameter is quite low in relation to other IBEX35 companies. I could even borrow more without any problem.

All the evolution of the value, both in the fundamental level and in the technical level of the stock, makes us see that AMADEUS is a good value to be invested since the trend is clearly bullish .

Technical analysis

If we look at the long-term chart we see how it broke the resistance of € 65 1 month ago and is doing a pull back to that resistance that is now support again. Tracing a channel parallel to the previous rise that occurred in 2018 when maximums were reached in the value we can foresee a rise until the summer to reach € 75 . Touching that resistance would draw a figure of HCHi that would overcome the value trying to touch again the maximum of € 80 last year.

Recall that until 2017 he was making a side channel between € 32 and € 42. And that was not until the presentation of some very good results and good forecasts when the value jump that resistance and went to the current resistance of € 65, a 50% increase from minimums. Now I would struggle to reach another 50% from minimums since the life support is at € 58 and the forecasts are to reach € 85, in the long term. Quite possibly, in my opinion, do not exceed that value until I touch it several times and for the moment it has only been once .

The strategy in this case would be to make a first entry now at these prices and reduce position as it approaches € 74. You could also wait to see if it plays again support (€ 58) and enter there with an aggressive position to be distributed when we carry more than a 15% gain (€ 70).

eco_amadeus_1Y


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