Let us remember the origins of Bankia, the almighty Cajamadrid savings bank. In 2012 it would go public with Rodrigo Rato and soon the true financial situation of the entity would be known with a very large hole.
This hole was a consequence of the immovable crisis. Bankia, like all Spanish savings banks and banks to a lesser extent, gave hypotheca as if giving candies to hungry children.
They did not take into account the risks or a change in the world economy. Many if they saw it but honoring the short-term view of the Spanish "I bagged the pasta and the brown one will already carry another".
That was the case of the old address but they would not predict that the damage would be huge and that the bank would be on the verge of bankruptcy having to be rescued by the state with nearly 40,000 million euros .
Being a bank, the debt and all the securities that it carries are not relevant, since the bank is the one that loans and its debt is usually referenced to other banks or entities, as they are the creditors of many companies and individuals.
These data are usually internal to the bank and can not be presented as they are constantly changing.
Here I present the data of fundamentals that I think are most important:
| ### | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benefit/share value | |||||
| Capitalización(M) | 14.258 | 12.369 | 11.183 | 11.479 | 11.158 |
| EBDITA (M) | 382 | 342 | 351 | 387 | 426* |
| PER | - | 10,01 | 12,87 | 13,75 | 13,43 |
| Net benefit (M) | 1.040 | 804 | 505 | 845 | |
| Dividend (%) | 3.14% | 3,06% | 3,47% | 3,89% | |
From the fundamental data we can see the very progressive rise of the EBDITA and the improvement of the data as well as a lower PER for its better price. In addition for 3 years gives a pretty good dividend of 3% , while other banks like Santander do not give it. In addition, if we compare it with similar IBEX banks, the upside potential is much higher and, on the other hand, these powerful banks such as BBVA and Santander would be planning to buy Bankia in the medium term. This supposed OPA that could occur once it accumulates enough benefits produced by the rise in rates that is expected in 2020, could lead to the value to triple its price on the stock market. Putting accounts, Bankia could be bought between 2020 and 2022 but if it grows a lot it may no longer be so attractive so it should be seen.
Another important factor is the purchase of BMN (Banca Mare Nostrum) in 2017 which made Bankia extend even further through national territory. The synergies produced by this purchase should be about 100 million per year. This purchase should begin to be noticed in 2019 once settled in the results.
Once the time elapsed after the IPO Bankia would settle around the price of 1 euro and the following year would be a macro expansion of capital. Again, there would be speculation about the value and a contrasplit of 100 to 1 would be made to give it the value of Euro, in particular € 1.36.
This would be novel since in the IBEX35 there would never have been a value that would be so low. From then on, the downward spiral would begin, which would end in mid-2016 just before the American elections.
To say that this value is correlated very well with the IBEX35 and as soon as the IBEX left the 7,800 points and began to scale Bankia would go hand in hand.
Once starting to rise and after the good news of the results with the new director of the entity, Goirigolzarri would start a meteoric rise from lows at 0.52 to double its value in 6 months. This can be seen in the following figure, from € 2.1 (0.55) to € 4.6 (1.16) in May 2017.
The maximum of the rise coincides with the victory of Macron in the French elections. From there the IBEX would begin a severe correction increased by the failed coup d'etat in Catalonia.
The data of the debt do not count on them but they have been reducing little by little. The most important value is that 57% of their shares are held by the state and it will do what it has to do to sell them with capital gains.
In 2015, a figure was set around € 1.5, € 6 at the current exchange rate to start selling. That would mean at today's prices a revaluation of twice the current prices.
Si analizamos el valor a corto plazo se puede observar que ahora mismo esta en comenzando un nuevo canal alcista y con todas las perspectivas de que no lo va a perder. Si observamos próximamente se cruzaran las líneas de nuevo, lo que indicara una pequeña corrección. Esta será la oportunidad para ejecutar la compra. Si la ajustamos en 3.6€ y fijamos como stop la superresistencia de 4€ podriamos tener unas plusvalias de un 18%, pero si seguimos hasta los máximos anteriores que en menos de dos años se rebasaran podrían ascender las plusvalias a cerca de un 40%. Si además vendemos en 4€ y volvemos a comprar por debajo en la base del canal podríamos sacar un 10% adicional, ya que el ancho del canal es aproximadamente eso.
En caso de perder los 3€ habría que pensar en salir del valor y a analizar las posibles causas de esa caída. Una vez superado los 4€ sería aconsejable ir poniendo stops por debajo del 5% de donde este en cada momento.
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